Cover Story: CL’s Sonny-Do List

• Education

The problem

More than 30 percent of Georgia’s high school students don’t graduate. The state ranks 46th in SAT scores. And companies cite mediocre schools as one reason not to bring high-tech, high-paying jobs to Georgia. Rural schools in particular are stuck in a vicious cycle: They don’t have the property-tax base to fund decent schools, but their poorly educated work force can’t attract the employers to help grow that tax base.

The options

There’s bipartisan agreement that Georgia needs to reform the way it funds education. State money simply could be redistributed to reduce the inequities between systems, but that would cut the funds going to wealthier systems.

An alternative might be a statewide sales tax for schools — an approach likely to be popular among conservative Republicans (they’re already pushing to fund local school budgets with sales taxes instead of property taxes). But skeptics, ranging from liberal Democratic Sen. Vincent Fort to moderate Republican Rep. Fran Millar, worry that sales taxes aren’t a stable revenue source because they fluctuate with the economy.

A larger philosophical debate revolves around the very future of public schools. Social conservatives say test scores are low because public schools are lousy. They want vouchers that would allow families to apply tax dollars to private-school tuition. That could further complicate the funding problems for public schools, however.

Gov. Sonny Perdue ran for office this year on the modest promise that he’ll install career counselors in the state’s middle schools. And Millar, the House Education Committee vice chairman, plans to lobby Perdue to increase funding for a “work force initiative” — essentially high-tech vocational training in high school.

Democrats point out that such tinkering isn’t likely to dramatically improve education. Senate Minority Leader Robert Brown notes that today’s workers need better fundamental education because the high-tech job requirements change so quickly.

The handicap

Perdue will get funding for his middle-school counselors. The work force initiative and other modest changes stand a good chance if the governor supports them and the state budget remains flush.

A lawsuit challenging Georgia’s funding formula isn’t expected to be settled before the end of next year’s legislative session. While the governor offered vague campaign promises for smaller class sizes, little is likely to be done in that area until the funding formula is settled.

Social conservatives, emboldened by last week’s huge GOP victory margins, may push for vouchers. But Perdue didn’t run on that idea and will likely hold off any radical changes until the funding formula is resolved.

• Transportation

The problem

At 31 minutes, the average metro Atlanta commute is among the nation’s worst. We also commute among the longest distances. Imagine how bad it’ll be in 25 years, when we have another 3 million people.

Cars, together with Georgia Power’s plants, make Atlanta’s air unhealthy. The metro area regularly exceeds federal ozone-smog and particle-pollution standards. Dr. Kathleen Ann Sheerin of the Atlanta Allergy and Asthma Clinic says metro asthma cases have doubled since the ’80s. Some health experts say premature deaths due to air pollution number annually into the thousands.

The options

Alternatives that would ease congestion and reduce pollution have stalled for decades while both Democrats and Republicans poured money into roads statewide. Unlike in many other states, Georgia’s gas tax can only be applied to roads. There’s some talk of imposing a regional sales tax to pay for transportation alternatives.

The city of Atlanta is bypassing the state to fund its Beltline (through property taxes). But metro-wide solutions need state funding. Emory Morsberger, a former Republican legislator who’s leading a push for a $400-million commuter line to Athens, wants lawmakers to provide matching money to federal grants for the so-called Brain Train, as well as for a station in Atlanta. But many GOP lawmakers are suspicious of rail. They worry that commuter lines will have to be subsidized after they’re built and that people won’t use them.

Lt. Gov.-elect Casey Cagle is among those enamored with privatized highways. Such schemes are being pushed by Wall Street financiers and the local road-building lobby. But they’d do little to cut pollution, would only temporarily reduce congestion and are likely to make sprawl worse. They’re also costly: A study released this week by the conservative Georgia Public Policy Foundation calls for $25 billion to be spent ripping double-deck, underground toll roads and truck-only tunnels through inner-city neighborhoods.

Many planners and politicos, including some of Perdue’s advisers, agree that a single transit authority is needed at the state level to coordinate the tangle of agencies in the region already governing transit services.

The handicap

Perdue aides have hinted that he’ll support some consolidation of metro transit services in this winter’s legislative session. That may marginally improve suburban bus systems, and it could even stabilize MARTA’s leadership.

The Brain Train, as well as a proposed commuter line south to Lovejoy, could die for lack of funding. If metro business leaders prevail upon Perdue, however, there’s an outside chance that lawmakers could place a regional transit sales tax before voters as early as 2007.

Meanwhile, there’s a real risk that lawmakers will empower the Department of Transportation to push ahead with poorly conceived privatized road projects, approved with minimal opportunity for public review. That could set off huge fights between neighborhood groups and road-building interests.

• Taxes

The problem

Georgia’s tax structure is antiquated. Our income tax brackets were established in 1937, when a $10,000 income was considered upper crust. Other than special interests muscling favors from the Legislature, the sales tax hasn’t changed significantly since groceries were exempted in 1992.

What’s evolved is a hodgepodge that creates inequities not only among different income groups, but also among people with similar incomes (example: among people earning at least $100,000, the average senior citizen pays 40 percent less in taxes). Although Georgia ranks 25th among the states in total tax burden, state and local taxes have increased by two-thirds for each resident since 1980 (adjusted for inflation).

The options

Democrats decry “tax breaks for the rich.” Republicans condemn out-of-control government spending and urge that each person pay a “fair share.” Beyond the slogans are real philosophical differences.

Georgia’s patchwork system is largely a Democratic creation — the result of decades of pressure to increase funds for schools and infrastructure. Democrats tend to propose tweaks.

Republicans talk about more sweeping solutions, such as a “taxpayers’ bill of rights” (or TABOR) that would cap local and state spending and require referendums to exceed the limits. That strategy is often coupled with proposals to shift the burden to the sales tax (which mirrors the so-called “Fair Tax” proposal at the federal level). An expanded sales tax would be used to eliminate or reduce income and property taxes, an approach that would put more of the burden on lower-income families.

Democrats suggest measures such as eliminating the wide variety of exemptions to the sales tax and including services under the sales tax (many Republicans also support those measures). Democrats also have floated such ideas as increasing cigarette taxes (something Perdue backed in his first year as governor) and updating the earnings brackets for the state income tax.

The handicap

Because of a pending lawsuit on state funding of schools, not much is likely to happen in the upcoming session (see “Education,” above).

Within the next few years, expect a reform package that will include a TABOR-type spending cap, a sales tax expansion and reductions on income and property taxes. Lt. Gov.-elect Casey Cagle is among those who argue that corporations shouldn’t pay income taxes. Senior citizens will continue to get tax breaks as the number of retirees in the state climbs (they vote, after all). A “Fair Tax” crusade is likely, considering the national popularity of the proposal.

Of course, all those changes could limit the state’s ability to pay for things such as education, transportation and health care.

• Health Care

The problem

According to the state Department of Community Health, 1.7 million Georgians don’t have health insurance, and that number appears to be climbing. This is a middle-class crisis: Two-thirds of the uninsured are either employed or self-employed.

It’s also a problem for doctors, hospitals and insurers: People without insurance often get care late, when it’s more expensive; if they can’t pay their bills, their costs are shifted to other payers. Businesses, meanwhile, are burdened either by high insurance premiums or less healthy workers.

The options

The two parties offer diametrically opposed solutions: Georgia Democrats advocate modest steps similar to those that have expanded coverage in Tennessee and other states. They range from gradually expanding the pools of those who qualify for existing programs to setting up new managed-care pools that target small businesses. In his losing campaign for governor, for example, Lt. Gov. Mark Taylor championed expanding the state’s PeachCare program to cover all children without health insurance.

Republicans argue that the key to lower premiums lies in privatizing programs, cutting down on regulations and encouraging competition. Gov. Sonny Perdue has already contracted the Medicaid program for the poor and the state employees’ health out to private HMOs; despite widespread complaints from both groups, he’s shown no sign of backing off.

Some Republicans are eager to try out ideas being cooked up at the Center for Health Transformation, former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s think tank. State Rep. Mark Butler, from Gingrich’s former hometown of Carrollton, wants to increase incentives for people to contribute to tax-free health-savings accounts, and even to subsidize contributions to the insurance premiums of low-income people.

The handicap

State Sen. Vincent Fort, D-Atlanta, hopes he and other Democrats can shame the Republican majority into expanding PeachCare, bit by bit. That may be wishful thinking.

Expect Republicans to consider offering tax breaks to people to pay for insurance premiums or to put money into their health-savings accounts.

Those steps won’t help people who simply don’t have the money for insurance, however. Health insurance may very well grow as a potent issue for Democrats if Republicans don’t address that problem by actually improving health-care access for those people.

• Water

The problem

North Georgia’s looming dilemma is that its economy is based on continued population growth while its water supply is finite. Almost all the metro area’s water comes from two watersheds (the Chattahoochee and the Etowah), and there are few other sources to tap. Population growth adds about 34,000 gallons a day to the region’s water demand. By 2030, the Chattahoochee won’t have any more water to give, and that’s assuming each resident reduces consumption by 11 percent. Meanwhile, Alabama and Florida — which also have critical needs for the Chattahoochee’s water — have been engaged in “water wars” with Georgia. Meeting those states’ demands will put further pressure on Atlanta to reduce consumption, curb growth or find alternative sources. The longer that modest solutions, such as conservation, are put off, the more drastic and expensive the solutions will become in the future.

The options

Gov. Sonny Perdue declared last spring that the Florida-Georgia-Alabama dispute amounted to water for people versus water for the endangered mussels that live downstream from metro Atlanta. Not really.

The root of the problem is Atlanta’s unrestrained growth. For now, at least, growth restrictions are off the table. Georgia lawmakers have long been beholden to the development industry — underscored by the massive campaign contributions from builders to Perdue and Lt. Gov.-elect Cagle. So it’s almost unthinkable that Republicans will acknowledge the link between sprawl and the looming water crisis — until it’s too late.

Modest steps suggested by citizen groups call for billing structures that penalize water wasters, more efficient plumbing and land-use planning that recognizes the limited availability of water. Some local leaders already have suggested very expensive alternatives. These include building desalinization plants on the Georgia coast and piping the water from other watersheds to metro Atlanta.

The handicap

Expect a great big yawn from Perdue and the Legislature. Developers will continue their unrestrained construction (unless there is a calamitous economic downturn). The water wars will be doggedly fought, but the issues are so complex that there will be little public excitement.

Democrats haven’t established much of a record on water conservation and aren’t likely to do so now. Ultimately, external events — droughts and water-service interruptions — will provoke action. But don’t expect other regions in Georgia to offer their water as a solution to Atlanta’s unwillingness to curb its growth and insatiable thirst.