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Friday, September 22, 2006

Georgia swing

Compared with other recent polls, which have hovered around 40 percent approval for Bush, yesterday's New York Times/CBS News poll seems a bit more favorable toward Democrats. Whatever ends up happening in Congress, Georgia could counter the national trend toward Democrats in a significant way.

That's because Democrats failed to recruit any candidates who could seriously challenge any of the seven incumbent Republicans in the Georgia House delegation. So all the Republicans are relatively safe, while Republicans are running two very conservative former reps against two downstate Democrats. If Sonny Perdue beats Mark Taylor by 15 or more points, as current polls suggest, Perdue could help former Rep. Mac Collins against conservative Democrat Jim Marshall in Middle Georgia, and former Rep. Max "Crazy Man" Burns against moderate Democrat John Barrow in east Georgia.

Either way, it seems likely that the party balance in the U.S. House will be about as close as it's ever been. An argument could be made that the winner will be the party that's in the minority in the House, because the majority will have such a hard time governing in such a situation. (It's in the Senate where things really matter, because there may be a Supreme Court vacancy or two over the next two years.)

Posted by Ken Edelstein

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