Friday, November 7, 2008
News The Libertarian effect on Georgia's U.S. Senate race
Posted by Thomas Wheatley @thomaswheatley on Fri, Nov 7, 2008 at 1:51 AM
No one really expected Georgia's U.S. Senate race to be this tough, cost this much or last this long. Incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss started off with more money than God, favorable approval ratings, and a late-in-the-game Democratic challenger whose heart, critics said, seemed to be elsewhere. And the Libertarian nominee Allen Buckley? Puh-lease.
But then Wall Street had its meltdown and Congress threw it a gold-plated life preserver. Chambliss was among the 74 senators who voted for the bailout package in a move that angered a great number of conservatives — and royally pissed off Libertarians.
And according to results of Tuesday's General Election, Buckley gobbled up more than 100,000 votes that arguably would've gone to Chambliss. Why do I think that? Buckley's take for the night was 127,050 votes, or 3.4 percent of people who voted in the race. Libertarian Presidential nominee Bob Barr only snatched 28,583, or 0.7 percent. And everyone — including me — was wondering what impact the presidential race would have on contests farther down the ticket.
After the jump is a transcript of a chat I had nearly two months ago when I interviewed Tom Perdue, the political veteran who managed Chambliss' campaign, for a story I wrote about the U.S. Senate race.
Q: How is the [Libertarian candidate] Bob Barr playing into your campaign strategy?
I'm not concerned to the point where we are focusing our campaign that way. Libertarian candidates are going to draw a certain percentage. Period. Bob Barr is going to draw a certain percentage, but he would draw the same percentage you'd draw if you were a candidate. That's not an insult to you, that's not an insult to Bob Barr. It really makes no difference who the Libertarian candidate is — they're going to draw the same percentage. You just assume there'll be a Libertarian candidate in Georgia, and they'll draw 4 percent of the vote — that's 4 percent you're not going to get.The polls that I've seen and the polls we've run, Bob Barr is not a factor in the race in Georgia. He's not a factor in the race in any other state as far as Mccain and Obama are concerned. He draws the same as the previous Libertarian candidate.
Maybe if the Libertarian Party could draw a personality, they could draw a bigger share nationally. That could help in the state. The Georgia [U.S. Senate] Libertarian candidate wouldn't help the presidential candidate. It's the other way around.
This was the kicker that struck me:
Libertarian voters are more in tune with Republican voters than the Democrat.
Not in this go round in Georgia. Perdue was gracious to project Barr would take 4 percent of the presidential race and in turn cost them a relative amount in the Senate race — but it turns out it was Buckley who came closer to that projection. This sounds strange, but maybe that fradulent memo that caused a commotion for about 14 hours had some good advice.
**I should note, this post isn't a ha-ha-you-were-wrong jab at Tom Perdue. Hindsight is 20/20. Perdue's taken some shots for his management of Chambliss' race, but he's a smart guy. It's just that Chambliss faced a very hostile political climate going into Nov. 4.
Comments (2)
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The author is correct; Buckley did siphon votes away from Chambliss. As such, Chambliss should easily win the run-off. Opps, not so fast. If economic conditions continue to worsen and the Wall Street bail-out is perceived to be a flop, Chambliss could lose. Check out my Chambliss YouTube videos at: http://www.youtube.com/user/OscarLewis Party 'till Saxby's knees buckle, Oscar
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From the distance of Suffolk County,New York (on Long Island) the Senate race in Georgia has national implications. A Democratic victory would aid in gaining greater control of the U.S. Senate. Expect large sums of money on ads and a great deal of focus on Georgia nationally. Get ready for change. Joe M
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