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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

About that SurveyUSA poll predicting doom for donkeys

Yesterday we posted a 11 Alive/V-103/WMAZ poll that showed Roy Barnes lagging 11 point behind Republican nominee Nathan Deal.

In addition to some quizzical results — some of which AtlMalcontent and S. DeKalb Voter mentioned in the post's comments — the poll of 599 likely voters said the GOP would basically steamroll its competition in several statewide races.

Jim Galloway offers this about the poll:

One fly in the ointment needs to be considered: Polls are based on turnout predictions. And according to the crosstabs of the SurveyUSA poll, African-American turnout in November is estimated at 23 percent.

Turnout among black voters in ’08, with Barack Obama on the ballot, was 30 percent. No one anticipates a similar flood this year — but Democrats argue that 23 percent is far too low, and amounts to padding the Republican lead.

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