Snubs: To me, the most egregious snubs are Julianne Moore for Best Actress for The Kids Are All Right (although even Supporting Actress would have been a tolerable consolation): She's basically a co-lead with Annette Bening, and her character arguably drives the plot more than Bening's dones. Plus, she's never won an Oscar. Plus, she's great in it. (For that matter, one of my favorite films of last year was Please Give,' which was arguably better written and better acted than The Kids Are All Right, but the latter film had more star power and got more attention.
Overrated: Best Picture nominee Black Swan strikes me as crazily overrated. Natalie Portman clearly worked her heart out for it, but it's themes and ideas look increasingly stupid when you hold them up to scrutiny. I also find True Grit a little overpraised, but mostly because the Coen Brothers set such a high standard that movie that's just "good" feels like a let-down.
Underrated: Javier Bardem gives a tremendous performance in Biutiful, but the Spanish-language movie has a reputation for being a downer, so practically no one's seen it. My favorite film of 2010 was Best Documentary nominee Exit Through the Gift Shop, which promises to offer the award show's most interesting moment if enigmatic, stunt-prone guerilla artist Banksy wins the Oscar.
Most Likely to Endure: Twenty years from now, we'll definitely be talking about Pixar's output like Toy Story 3. It'll be interesting to see how fondly we'll remember The Social Network. I love the movie, but Facebook may have gone the way of C.B. radio in two decades.
Best Picture prediction:
Should win: The Social Network
Will win: The King's Speech (but I'll bet The Social Network gets Best Director)
Best Actor prediction:
Should win: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Will win: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress prediction:
Should win: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Will win: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor prediction
Should & will win: Christian Bale, The Fighter (Not only is he great, he's hilarious)
Best Supporting Actress
Should win: Jackie Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Will win: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
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