Atlanta’s census results and the Perception of Crime©
With fewer people, Andisheh Nouraee says, Atlanta’s crime rate is higher
Andisheh Nouraee, who in 2009 questioned city leaders’ claims that Atlanta’s crime problem was more perception than reality, wondered how new census results might affect our crime stats. Via email:
As you wrote yesterday, the huge overestimate of City of Atlanta’s population will have many consequences. As you hinted at, it may explain our residential real estate depression. Using the old population statistics, “experts” thought Atlanta gained one new unit of housing for every 4 new people. According to the new numbers, we actually built approximately 10 new housing units for every new person.
Our understanding of intown crime is also changed by the new Census numbers. Crime rates (as opposed to total numbers of crimes) are calculated by taking the total number of crimes and dividing it by the population. In 2009, for example, the FBI reported Atlanta’s violent crime rate was 11.5 per 1,000 residents. This was based on the then “official” Census estimate of 552,901 people living in Atlanta.
The new Census data says Atlanta’s population was actually only 420,000. That means our violent crime was actually 15.1 per 1,000 residents.
Our property crime rate in 2009 was reported to be 62.1 per 1,000 people using the old population estimate. Using the new estimate, it’s 81.8 property crimes per 1,000 residents.
http://www.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2010/09/13/daily14.html
Without looking at 2010 Census numbers for other large cities, one can’t accurately rank Atlanta. But the huge overestimate of Atlanta’s population almost certainly moves us higher on the list of most dangerous cities (ranked by crime rate). I’ll do a spreadsheet when I have some free time, but our crime rate is clearly on par with notoriously high-crime places like Detroit, Oakland, St. Louis and Baltimore.
The new population numbers might also explain why Mayor Shirley Franklin and Chief Pennington seemed so out of touch with city residents in 2008 and 2009 when talking about crime. When Pennington bemoaned an apparent disconnect between the perception of crime and the actual rate of crime, he was relying on population statistics that made Atlanta’s crime rate appear more than 20 percent lower than it actually was.
These Census numbers prove that those of us who “perceived” the crime rate to be much higher than statistics suggested were, in fact, correct.
Thoughts?