Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Movies Oscar Countdown: Adapted and Original Screenplay
Posted by Curt Holman @Curt_Holman on Wed, Feb 15, 2012 at 9:34 AM
In advance of the Academy Award ceremony on Feb. 26, Screen Grab will predict the winners in all categories.
Adapted Screenplay: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon and Jim Rash, The Descendants; John Logan, Hugo; George Clooney, Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon, The Ides of March; Steven Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin and Stan Chervin, Moneyball; Bridget O'Connor and Peter Straughan, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. Hugo might be the most-nominated film, but I doubt many Academy voters will find its script to be its strength. George Clooney shares the writing nomination for The Ides of March, but that film is pretty much completely overshadowed by The Descendants, which also stars Clooney. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and Moneyball both deserve props for compressing such complicated source material, although Tinker left a lot of audiences puzzled.
Prediction: Moneyball. As a film that finds drama in a real-life, occasionally geeky subject, the adaptation of Michael Lewis' book is this year's equivalent to The Social Network, which won co-scripter Aaron Sorkin an Oscar last year. To apply Moneyball's own metric to the Oscars, however, I think The Descendants is undervalued in many categories and could stage several upsets.
Original Screenplay: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist; Annie Mumolo and Kristen Wiig, Bridesmaids; J.C. Chandor, Margin Call; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Asghar Farhadi, A Separation. The nominees run the gamut of intense family conflict (A Separation), tense, ripped-from-the-headlines financial drama (Margin Call), raunchy, popular comedy (Bridesmaids) and two lovely exercises in nostalgia (The Artist and Midnight in Paris). I really liked Margin Call's script, and think that recognizing Bridesmaids would be a way to reward Wiig despite her Best Actress snub, but I doubt either of those will happen.
Prediction: Midnight in Paris. It's by far the safest choice of the five, but it also represents a charming comeback for Woody Allen, who's been making films for nearly 50 years. But will he skip the Oscar ceremony?
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